Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on November 15?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $5 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$5.25

Combined PnL

-$49.04

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$5.25

Total Shares508

Combined PnL-$49.04

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.2	$5.06	-$12.14	33% 309-636 (945)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.56	$0.06	-$10.5	54% 1228-1028 (2256)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.71	$0.03	-$5.68	32% 281-585 (866)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$40.52	$0.03	-$8.68	35% 3825-6979 (10804)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.08	$0.03	-$5.05	36% 265-479 (744)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.23	$0.02	-$3.22	26% 565-1641 (2206)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.8	$0.01	-$1.79	42% 2644-3715 (6359)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.96	$0.01	-$0.95	43% 5129-6814 (11943)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	24% 108-347 (455)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.34	$0	-$0.34	32% 224-485 (709)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.24	$0	-$0.24	25% 1327-4003 (5330)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.2

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$12.14

Record

33%

309-636 (945)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.56

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$10.5

Record

54%

1228-1028 (2256)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.71

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.68

Record

32%

281-585 (866)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.52

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$8.68

Record

35%

3825-6979 (10804)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.08

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.05

Record

36%

265-479 (744)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.22

Record

26%

565-1641 (2206)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.79

Record

42%

2644-3715 (6359)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.96

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.95

Record

43%

5129-6814 (11943)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

24%

108-347 (455)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.34

Value

PnL

-$0.34

Record

32%

224-485 (709)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

PnL

-$0.24

Record

25%

1327-4003 (5330)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.