Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on November 15?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $25 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$25.21

Combined PnL

-$43.55

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$24.99

Total Shares25

Combined PnL+$0.06

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.22

Total Shares448

Combined PnL-$43.61

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.94	$19.99	+$0.05	53% 7192-6289 (13481)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$4.99	$5	+$0.01	30% 1134-2678 (3812)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.21	$0.07	-$12.14	36% 309-548 (857)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.56	$0.06	-$10.5	54% 1228-1028 (2256)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.08	$0.03	-$5.05	36% 265-479 (744)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$39.74	$0.03	-$7.89	35% 3825-6979 (10804)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.23	$0.02	-$3.22	26% 565-1641 (2206)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.08	$0.01	-$2.06	32% 281-585 (866)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.8	$0.01	-$1.79	42% 2644-3715 (6359)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.96	$0.01	-$0.95	43% 5129-6814 (11943)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

7192-6289 (13481)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

PnL

+$0.01

Record

30%

1134-2678 (3812)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.21

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$12.14

Record

36%

309-548 (857)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.56

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$10.5

Record

54%

1228-1028 (2256)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.08

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.05

Record

36%

265-479 (744)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.74

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$7.89

Record

35%

3825-6979 (10804)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.22

Record

26%

565-1641 (2206)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.08

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.06

Record

32%

281-585 (866)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.79

Record

42%

2644-3715 (6359)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.96

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.95

Record

43%

5129-6814 (11943)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.