Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on November 15?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $89 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$88.93

Combined PnL

-$10.29

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$88.57

Total Shares89

Combined PnL-$0.08

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.35

Total Shares116

Combined PnL-$10.21

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.91	$29.88	-$0.03	30% 1026-2400 (3426)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$19.92	$19.94	+$0.02	53% 6903-6063 (12966)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$14.15	$14.12	-$0.03	63% 716-429 (1145)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$10.38	$10.36	-$0.02	48% 762-815 (1577)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.24	$9.22	-$0.02	58% 684-501 (1185)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.05	$5.05	-$0.01	51% 787-755 (1542)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.56	$0.35	-$10.21	55% 1208-982 (2190)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.91

Value

$29.88

PnL

-$0.03

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.92

Value

$19.94

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

6903-6063 (12966)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$14.15

Value

$14.12

PnL

-$0.03

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$10.38

Value

$10.36

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

762-815 (1577)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$9.24

Value

$9.22

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

684-501 (1185)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.56

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$10.21

Record

55%

1208-982 (2190)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.