Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on November 15?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $78 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$78.09
-$12.32
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+15 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $29.37 | $29.06 | -$0.32 | 28% 1014-2623 (3637) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $16.18 | $16 | -$0.18 | 46% 1077-1282 (2359) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $14.21 | $14.56 | +$0.36 | 53% 6903-6063 (12966) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $7.85 | $7.76 | -$0.09 | 50% 701-690 (1391) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $4.8 | $4.92 | +$0.12 | 30% 1026-2400 (3426) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $10.56 | $3.02 | -$7.54 | 55% 1208-982 (2190) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $2.77 | $2.74 | -$0.03 | 48% 762-815 (1577) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $55.65 | $0.04 | -$4.64 | 36% 3731-6727 (10458) |
Invested
$29.37
Value
$29.06
PnL
-$0.32
Record
28%
1014-2623 (3637)
Invested
$16.18
Value
$16
PnL
-$0.18
Record
46%
1077-1282 (2359)
Invested
$14.21
Value
$14.56
PnL
+$0.36
Record
53%
6903-6063 (12966)
Invested
$7.85
Value
$7.76
PnL
-$0.09
Record
50%
701-690 (1391)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.92
PnL
+$0.12
Record
30%
1026-2400 (3426)
Invested
$10.56
Value
$3.02
PnL
-$7.54
Record
55%
1208-982 (2190)
Invested
$2.77
Value
$2.74
PnL
-$0.03
Record
48%
762-815 (1577)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$55.65
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$4.64
Record
36%
3731-6727 (10458)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
graynotebook19
No — $29.06
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $16
cigarettes
No — $14.56
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $7.76
mildwindow27
No — $4.92
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98
CTRYes — $3.02
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $2.74
Lucerys
CTRYes — $0.04