Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 15?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 64¢ · $92 held · ends Nov 15

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$91.81

Combined PnL

$24.69

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$33.1

Total Shares116

Combined PnL+$22.54

No8 traders

Total Value$58.7

Total Shares91

Combined PnL+$2.15

Yes — 11%No — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+29 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.56	$33.1	+$22.54	55% 1208-982 (2190)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 59¢	$19.67	$16.64	+$2.18	53% 1598-1443 (3041)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 65¢	$13	$12.7	-$0.3	40% 625-948 (1573)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 65.6¢	$8.59	$8.31	-$0.28	51% 787-755 (1542)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 58¢	$5.43	$6.09	+$0.66	53% 6903-6063 (12966)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 66¢	$5.32	$5.12	-$0.2	46% 1077-1282 (2359)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 66¢	$5.29	$5.09	-$0.2	63% 716-429 (1145)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 58¢	$2.9	$3.25	+$0.35	34% 231-458 (689)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 66¢	$1.57	$1.51	-$0.06	50% 701-690 (1391)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.56

Value

$33.1

PnL

+$22.54

Record

55%

1208-982 (2190)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$19.67

Value

$16.64

PnL

+$2.18

Record

53%

1598-1443 (3041)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$13

Value

$12.7

PnL

-$0.3

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$8.59

Value

$8.31

PnL

-$0.28

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$5.43

Value

$6.09

PnL

+$0.66

Record

53%

6903-6063 (12966)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.32

Value

$5.12

PnL

-$0.2

Record

46%

1077-1282 (2359)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.29

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$0.2

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0.35

Record

34%

231-458 (689)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$1.57

Value

$1.51

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

701-690 (1391)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+29 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.