Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on November 15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 52¢ · $395 held · ends Nov 15

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$395.11

Combined PnL

$57.6

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 51.9¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$273.5

Total Shares545

Combined PnL+$52.68

Yes2 traders

Total Value$121.17

Total Shares243

Combined PnL+$4.92

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 52.4¢	$850.61	$208.91	+$48.5	55% 1208-982 (2190)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 46.7¢	$86.88	$93.78	+$6.9	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 51.5¢	$29.37	$27.39	-$1.98	40% 625-948 (1573)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 49.1¢	$19.61	$20.74	+$1.14	65% 4292-2315 (6607)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 49.1¢	$14.73	$15.58	+$0.85	34% 263-518 (781)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 54.3¢	$10.86	$9.82	-$1.04	53% 6903-6063 (12966)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 48.8¢	$6.9	$7.34	+$0.44	51% 787-755 (1542)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 56¢	$9.04	$6.91	+$2.49	53% 1598-1443 (3041)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 48.3¢	$3.89	$4.19	+$0.29	51% 746-711 (1457)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$850.61

Value

$208.91

PnL

+$48.5

Record

55%

1208-982 (2190)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.88

Value

$93.78

PnL

+$6.9

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.37

Value

$27.39

PnL

-$1.98

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$19.61

Value

$20.74

PnL

+$1.14

Record

65%

4292-2315 (6607)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$14.73

Value

$15.58

PnL

+$0.85

Record

34%

263-518 (781)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.86

Value

$9.82

PnL

-$1.04

Record

53%

6903-6063 (12966)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$6.9

Value

$7.34

PnL

+$0.44

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.04

Value

$6.91

PnL

+$2.49

Record

53%

1598-1443 (3041)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.89

Value

$4.19

PnL

+$0.29

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

51.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.