Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on November 14?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 55¢ · $339 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 38%
$338.83
$50.33
43.4¢ → 54.7¢
+26% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Yesavg 47.3¢ | $201.24 | $224.51 | +$23.27 | 56% 1200-949 (2149) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 45.7¢ | $50.34 | $51.47 | +$1.13 | 53% 6646-5820 (12466) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.06 | $23.57 | +$19.51 | 31% 114-255 (369) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $13.2 | $14.17 | +$0.97 | 31% 190-428 (618) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 43.9¢ | $10.97 | $11.81 | +$0.84 | 31% 225-501 (726) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Noavg 43.9¢ | $9.14 | $9.84 | +$0.7 | 27% 976-2603 (3579) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Noavg 44.1¢ | $1.74 | $1.83 | +$0.08 | 29% 1063-2631 (3694) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.69 | $1.62 | +$3.83 | 29% 630-1570 (2200) |
Invested
$201.24
Value
$224.51
PnL
+$23.27
Record
56%
1200-949 (2149)
Invested
$50.34
Value
$51.47
PnL
+$1.13
Record
53%
6646-5820 (12466)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$4.06
Value
$23.57
PnL
+$19.51
Record
31%
114-255 (369)
Invested
$13.2
Value
$14.17
PnL
+$0.97
Record
31%
190-428 (618)
Invested
$10.97
Value
$11.81
PnL
+$0.84
Record
31%
225-501 (726)
Invested
$9.14
Value
$9.84
PnL
+$0.7
Record
27%
976-2603 (3579)
Invested
$1.74
Value
$1.83
PnL
+$0.08
Record
29%
1063-2631 (3694)
Invested
$2.69
Value
$1.62
PnL
+$3.83
Record
29%
630-1570 (2200)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.