Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 8°C on November 14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 45¢ · $144 held · ends Nov 14

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$143.54

Combined PnL

-$33.28

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 45.4¢

-24% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$134.14

Total Shares297

Combined PnL-$42.54

Yes3 traders

Total Value$9.39

Total Shares19

Combined PnL+$9.26

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 60.2¢	$77.45	$58.06	-$19.39	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Noavg 55.2¢	$57.4	$46.94	-$10.46	55% 1208-982 (2190)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 66.4¢	$18.61	$12.63	-$5.98	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 62.9¢	$13.11	$9.39	-$3.71	29% 237-570 (807)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 65.8¢	$7.55	$5.17	-$2.37	72% 841-329 (1170)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$20.54	$4.41	+$0.5	40% 633-964 (1597)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.78	$3.04	+$7.18	36% 3740-6764 (10504)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 59.6¢	$2.57	$1.95	-$0.62	44% 5060-6556 (11616)
NO northdrawer<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.36	$1.94	+$1.58	29% 1098-2660 (3758)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$77.45

Value

$58.06

PnL

-$19.39

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Invested

$57.4

Value

$46.94

PnL

-$10.46

Record

55%

1208-982 (2190)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$18.61

Value

$12.63

PnL

-$5.98

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$13.11

Value

$9.39

PnL

-$3.71

Record

29%

237-570 (807)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$7.55

Value

$5.17

PnL

-$2.37

Record

72%

841-329 (1170)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.54

Value

$4.41

PnL

+$0.5

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.78

Value

$3.04

PnL

+$7.18

Record

36%

3740-6764 (10504)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$2.57

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0.62

Record

44%

5060-6556 (11616)

northdrawer<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$1.94

PnL

+$1.58

Record

29%

1098-2660 (3758)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.6%

45.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.