Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 7°C on November 14?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $339 held · ends Nov 14

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$339.09

Combined PnL

-$2.36

Smart Money Entry

94.8¢ → 97.7¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$336.49

Total Shares357

Combined PnL-$1.81

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.59

Total Shares47

Combined PnL-$0.56

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 91.8¢	$157.06	$161.25	+$4.19	40% 650-980 (1630)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 97.5¢	$107.5	$103.93	-$3.58	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98¢	$29.4	$28.29	-$1.11	30% 240-572 (812)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$24.51	$23.57	-$0.94	34% 244-467 (711)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$14.97	$14.61	-$0.36	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$4.85	$4.85	+$0	51% 719-703 (1422)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$1.84	$1.53	-$0.31	55% 2285-1885 (4170)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$0.26	$0.3	+$0.04	63% 736-439 (1175)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.4¢	$0.27	$0.29	+$0.02	58% 703-515 (1218)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$0.16	$0.29	+$0.13	59% 724-513 (1237)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.36	$0.14	-$0.22	29% 1100-2665 (3765)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$15.89	$0.04	-$0.21	36% 3754-6795 (10549)

241532532432

Invested

$157.06

Value

$161.25

PnL

+$4.19

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

cigarettes

Invested

$107.5

Value

$103.93

PnL

-$3.58

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.4

Value

$28.29

PnL

-$1.11

Record

30%

240-572 (812)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$24.51

Value

$23.57

PnL

-$0.94

Record

34%

244-467 (711)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.97

Value

$14.61

PnL

-$0.36

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.84

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$0.31

Record

55%

2285-1885 (4170)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.04

Record

63%

736-439 (1175)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

703-515 (1218)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0.13

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.22

Record

29%

1100-2665 (3765)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.89

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.21

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.