Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 3°C or below on November 14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $76 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$76.13

Combined PnL

-$27.78

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$75.99

Total Shares76

Combined PnL+$0.04

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.13

Total Shares259

Combined PnL-$27.82

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$30.18	$30.19	+$0.02	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$24.97	$24.98	+$0.01	42% 1625-2287 (3912)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$20.81	$20.82	+$0.01	34% 244-467 (711)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$53.68	$0.08	-$16.8	29% 3178-7933 (11111)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.64	$0.03	-$4.61	31% 161-352 (513)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.09	$0.02	-$3.07	29% 1100-2665 (3765)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.66	$0.01	-$1.65	36% 3754-6795 (10549)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.94	$0	-$1.24	27% 688-1902 (2590)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	49% 785-823 (1608)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$30.18

Value

$30.19

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$24.97

Value

$24.98

PnL

+$0.01

Record

42%

1625-2287 (3912)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$20.81

Value

$20.82

PnL

+$0.01

Record

34%

244-467 (711)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.68

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$16.8

Record

29%

3178-7933 (11111)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.64

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.61

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.09

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.07

Record

29%

1100-2665 (3765)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.66

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.65

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.94

Value

PnL

-$1.24

Record

27%

688-1902 (2590)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

49%

785-823 (1608)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.