Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on November 14?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 97¢ · $197 held · ends Nov 14

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$196.6

Combined PnL

-$26.12

Smart Money Entry

95¢ → 96.8¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$175.85

Total Shares178

Combined PnL+$7.49

Yes7 traders

Total Value$20.61

Total Shares736

Combined PnL-$33.61

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 96¢	$105.8	$108.58	+$2.78	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
Haradwaith	Noavg 91¢	$110.27	$37.15	+$4	31% 161-352 (513)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 96¢	$20	$20.52	+$0.53	34% 269-524 (793)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.2¢	$39.93	$13.56	-$26.36	55% 2285-1885 (4170)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$14.94	$9.59	+$0.18	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$12.85	$6.58	-$6.27	40% 650-980 (1630)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.08	$0.14	+$0.06	51% 719-703 (1422)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.2	$0.14	+$0.08	65% 4311-2325 (6636)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.06	$0.11	+$0.05	51% 804-766 (1570)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.05	$0.04	-$0	51% 769-727 (1496)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.77	$0.03	-$1.16	36% 3754-6795 (10549)

cigarettes

Invested

$105.8

Value

$108.58

PnL

+$2.78

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

Haradwaith

Invested

$110.27

Value

$37.15

PnL

+$4

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$20.52

PnL

+$0.53

Record

34%

269-524 (793)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.93

Value

$13.56

PnL

-$26.36

Record

55%

2285-1885 (4170)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.94

Value

$9.59

PnL

+$0.18

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.85

Value

$6.58

PnL

-$6.27

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$0.06

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$0.08

Record

65%

4311-2325 (6636)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.11

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

804-766 (1570)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.77

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.16

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.