Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on November 13?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 74¢ · $166 held · ends Nov 13

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$165.73

Combined PnL

$40.86

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$123.7

Total Shares387

Combined PnL+$44.61

No4 traders

Total Value$42.02

Total Shares59

Combined PnL-$3.75

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.6¢	$57.92	$85.71	+$27.78	58% 1045-765 (1810)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.7¢	$16	$27.43	+$11.43	61% 2171-1370 (3541)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	$14.31	$14.41	+$0.1	19% 113-491 (604)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 82¢	$16.4	$14.2	-$2.2	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.6¢	$5.16	$10.56	+$5.4	37% 457-784 (1241)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 71.6¢	$6.83	$6.77	-$0.06	75% 712-239 (951)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88¢	$8.24	$6.65	-$1.59	54% 994-856 (1850)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.92

Value

$85.71

PnL

+$27.78

Record

58%

1045-765 (1810)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16

Value

$27.43

PnL

+$11.43

Record

61%

2171-1370 (3541)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$14.31

Value

$14.41

PnL

+$0.1

Record

19%

113-491 (604)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$16.4

Value

$14.2

PnL

-$2.2

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.16

Value

$10.56

PnL

+$5.4

Record

37%

457-784 (1241)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$6.83

Value

$6.77

PnL

-$0.06

Record

75%

712-239 (951)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.24

Value

$6.65

PnL

-$1.59

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.