Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on November 12?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 92¢ · $75 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$75.39
-$5.85
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 91.7¢ | $32.23 | $29.7 | -$2.53 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $12.47 | $11.83 | -$0.64 | 79% 375-99 (474) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 88.2¢ | $8.38 | $8.54 | +$0.16 | 80% 558-142 (700) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 92.8¢ | $8.33 | $7.59 | -$0.75 | 40% 1455-2158 (3613) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88.1¢ | $5.37 | $5.47 | +$0.11 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.9¢ | $6.24 | $4.3 | -$1.94 | 68% 2063-953 (3016) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $4.6 | $4.23 | -$0.37 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 84.5¢ | $2.56 | $2.72 | +$0.16 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.4¢ | $1.05 | $1.01 | -$0.04 | 31% 285-621 (906) |
Invested
$32.23
Value
$29.7
PnL
-$2.53
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$12.47
Value
$11.83
PnL
-$0.64
Record
79%
375-99 (474)
Invested
$8.38
Value
$8.54
PnL
+$0.16
Record
80%
558-142 (700)
Invested
$8.33
Value
$7.59
PnL
-$0.75
Record
40%
1455-2158 (3613)
Invested
$5.37
Value
$5.47
PnL
+$0.11
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$6.24
Value
$4.3
PnL
-$1.94
Record
68%
2063-953 (3016)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.6
Value
$4.23
PnL
-$0.37
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$2.56
Value
$2.72
PnL
+$0.16
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.01
PnL
-$0.04
Record
31%
285-621 (906)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.