Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 8°C on November 12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $126 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$126.05
-$0.95
98.9¢ → 98.1¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $44.59 | $44.15 | -$0.44 | 53% 5757-5140 (10897) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.83 | $29.46 | -$0.37 | 17% 78-376 (454) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $18.49 | $18.64 | +$0.14 | 55% 641-522 (1163) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $15.86 | $15.73 | -$0.13 | 38% 3321-5397 (8718) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $8.91 | $8.82 | -$0.09 | 27% 939-2515 (3454) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $7.7 | $7.64 | -$0.06 | 28% 108-284 (392) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $1.61 | $1.61 | +$0 | 50% 395-390 (785) |
Invested
$44.59
Value
$44.15
PnL
-$0.44
Record
53%
5757-5140 (10897)
Invested
$29.83
Value
$29.46
PnL
-$0.37
Record
17%
78-376 (454)
Invested
$18.49
Value
$18.64
PnL
+$0.14
Record
55%
641-522 (1163)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$15.86
Value
$15.73
PnL
-$0.13
Record
38%
3321-5397 (8718)
Invested
$8.91
Value
$8.82
PnL
-$0.09
Record
27%
939-2515 (3454)
Invested
$7.7
Value
$7.64
PnL
-$0.06
Record
28%
108-284 (392)
Invested
$1.61
Value
$1.61
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
395-390 (785)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.