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NoYes
LucerysCTR<$100YesYesYesYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 6°C on November 12?
Resolved No. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 86%
Total Value
$15.15
Combined PnL
-$22.47
Smart Money Signal
Yes
6 of 7 top traders (86%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$15.15
Total Shares15
Combined PnL+$0.02
Yes6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares225
Combined PnL-$22.48
No — 14%Yes — 86%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $15.13 | $15.15 | +$0.02 | 53% 6319-5588 (11907) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $7.57 | — | -$7.57 | 58% 1171-835 (2006) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.76 | — | -$5.76 | 36% 3534-6183 (9717) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $12.69 | — | -$4.52 | 29% 126-306 (432) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.5 | — | -$1.5 | 30% 3006-7182 (10188) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.09 | — | -$1.09 | 18% 824-3672 (4496) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $14.76 | — | -$2.04 | 32% 564-1206 (1770) |
CI
cigarettes<$100Invested
$15.13
Value
$15.15
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
6319-5588 (11907)
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100Invested
$7.57
Value
—
PnL
-$7.57
Record
58%
1171-835 (2006)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$5.76
Value
—
PnL
-$5.76
Record
36%
3534-6183 (9717)
QU
quietparcelCTR<$100Invested
$12.69
Value
—
PnL
-$4.52
Record
29%
126-306 (432)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
$1.5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.5
Record
30%
3006-7182 (10188)
0X
0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100Invested
$1.09
Value
—
PnL
-$1.09
Record
18%
824-3672 (4496)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$14.76
Value
—
PnL
-$2.04
Record
32%
564-1206 (1770)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x5ee09f26...b913be
Slug
highest-temperature-in-amsterdam-on-november-12-2026-6c