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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 4°C or below on November 12?

Resolved No. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Yes 75%

Total Value

$24.13

Combined PnL

-$22.46

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$24.13

Total Shares24

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares225

Combined PnL-$22.48

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.13	$15.15	+$0.02	53% 6319-5588 (11907)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$8.97	$8.98	+$0.01	31% 155-351 (506)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.57	—	-$7.57	58% 1171-835 (2006)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.76	—	-$5.76	36% 3534-6183 (9717)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.69	—	-$4.52	29% 126-306 (432)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.5	—	-$1.5	30% 3006-7182 (10188)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.09	—	-$1.09	18% 824-3672 (4496)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.76	—	-$2.04	32% 564-1206 (1770)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$15.13

Value

$15.15

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

6319-5588 (11907)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$8.97

Value

$8.98

PnL

+$0.01

Record

31%

155-351 (506)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Invested

$7.57

Value

—

PnL

-$7.57

Record

58%

1171-835 (2006)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$5.76

Value

—

PnL

-$5.76

Record

36%

3534-6183 (9717)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$12.69

Value

—

PnL

-$4.52

Record

29%

126-306 (432)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

—

PnL

-$1.5

Record

30%

3006-7182 (10188)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Invested

$1.09

Value

—

PnL

-$1.09

Record

18%

824-3672 (4496)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$14.76

Value

—

PnL

-$2.04

Record

32%

564-1206 (1770)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x19b7176f...6937ed

Slug

highest-temperature-in-amsterdam-on-november-12-2026-4corbelow

Traders in this Market

cigarettes

No — $15.15

godblessme2026

No — $8.98

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes — $0

Lucerys

Yes — $0

quietparcel

Yes — $0

qwen300.fund

Yes — $0

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179

Yes — $0

luciebot

Yes — $0

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