Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C or higher on November 12?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $71 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$71.06

Combined PnL

-$19.34

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$70.96

Total Shares71

Combined PnL+$0.04

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.09

Total Shares186

Combined PnL-$19.38

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$46.82	$46.85	+$0.02	99% 601-5 (606)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.13	$15.14	+$0.01	53% 6040-5408 (11448)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$8.97	$8.98	+$0	17% 91-447 (538)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.57	$0.04	-$7.53	60% 1155-771 (1926)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.4	$0.02	-$4.83	37% 3439-5885 (9324)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.69	$0.02	-$4.5	25% 90-272 (362)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.76	$0	-$2.03	35% 512-942 (1454)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.49	$0	-$0.49	30% 2939-6893 (9832)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$46.82

Value

$46.85

PnL

+$0.02

Record

99%

601-5 (606)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$15.13

Value

$15.14

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$8.97

Value

$8.98

PnL

+$0

Record

17%

91-447 (538)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.57

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.53

Record

60%

1155-771 (1926)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.4

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.83

Record

37%

3439-5885 (9324)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.69

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.5

Record

25%

90-272 (362)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.76

Value

PnL

-$2.03

Record

35%

512-942 (1454)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

PnL

-$0.49

Record

30%

2939-6893 (9832)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.