Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $103 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$103.07
$0.01
99.7¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $37.67 | $37.67 | +$0 | 17% 68-331 (399) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $24.89 | $24.89 | +$0 | 53% 5757-5140 (10897) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $15.97 | $15.97 | +$0 | 38% 3321-5397 (8718) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $13.96 | $13.96 | +$0 | 79% 444-118 (562) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $8.95 | $8.95 | +$0.01 | 25% 81-244 (325) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $1.64 | $1.64 | +$0 | 42% 743-1014 (1757) |
Invested
$37.67
Value
$37.67
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
68-331 (399)
Invested
$24.89
Value
$24.89
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5757-5140 (10897)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$15.97
Value
$15.97
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
3321-5397 (8718)
Invested
$13.96
Value
$13.96
PnL
+$0
Record
79%
444-118 (562)
Invested
$8.95
Value
$8.95
PnL
+$0.01
Record
25%
81-244 (325)
Invested
$1.64
Value
$1.64
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
743-1014 (1757)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.