Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on November 12?

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $98 held · ends Nov 12

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$98.06

Combined PnL

-$0.06

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$98.06

Total Shares100

Combined PnL-$0.06

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$34.4	$34.41	+$0.02	53% 5657-5082 (10739)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$29.37	$29.24	-$0.14	27% 104-283 (387)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98¢	$13.72	$13.71	-$0.01	79% 375-99 (474)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$8.77	$8.79	+$0.02	26% 860-2483 (3343)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$6.97	$7.02	+$0.05	54% 553-471 (1024)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$4.9	$4.9	+$0	37% 3197-5378 (8575)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$34.4

Value

$34.41

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

5657-5082 (10739)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.37

Value

$29.24

PnL

-$0.14

Record

27%

104-283 (387)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$13.72

Value

$13.71

PnL

-$0.01

Record

79%

375-99 (474)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$8.77

Value

$8.79

PnL

+$0.02

Record

26%

860-2483 (3343)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.97

Value

$7.02

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

553-471 (1024)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

3197-5378 (8575)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.