Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 12?

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 35¢ · $214 held · ends Nov 12

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 17%

Total Value

$213.6

Combined PnL

$42.46

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$153.02

Total Shares437

Combined PnL+$47.39

No5 traders

Total Value$60.58

Total Shares91

Combined PnL-$4.93

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 24.2¢	$105.64	$153.02	+$47.39	61% 1144-746 (1890)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 67.7¢	$27.2	$26.1	-$1.1	53% 5575-4959 (10534)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75.9¢	$29.99	$16.3	-$3.5	54% 445-377 (822)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 68¢	$9.52	$9.1	-$0.42	78% 314-87 (401)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 64¢	$5.75	$5.84	+$0.09	14% 55-329 (384)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.25	+$0	37% 3136-5367 (8503)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$105.64

Value

$153.02

PnL

+$47.39

Record

61%

1144-746 (1890)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$27.2

Value

$26.1

PnL

-$1.1

Record

53%

5575-4959 (10534)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$29.99

Value

$16.3

PnL

-$3.5

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.1

PnL

-$0.42

Record

78%

314-87 (401)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$5.75

Value

$5.84

PnL

+$0.09

Record

14%

55-329 (384)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

3136-5367 (8503)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.