Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (65%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 36¢ · $43 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$42.74
-$1.04
Research grade
NeutralNo at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Noavg 41.9¢ | $16.34 | $15.98 | -$0.36 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $14.76 | $14.41 | -$0.35 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $6.02 | $5.74 | -$0.28 | 79% 375-99 (474) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $3.73 | $3.85 | +$0.12 | 80% 558-142 (700) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.05 | -$0.15 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $0.72 | $0.71 | -$0.02 | 80% 48-12 (60) |
Invested
$16.34
Value
$15.98
PnL
-$0.36
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$14.76
Value
$14.41
PnL
-$0.35
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$6.02
Value
$5.74
PnL
-$0.28
Record
79%
375-99 (474)
Invested
$3.73
Value
$3.85
PnL
+$0.12
Record
80%
558-142 (700)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.05
PnL
-$0.15
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$0.72
Value
$0.71
PnL
-$0.02
Record
80%
48-12 (60)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.