Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on November 11?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $564 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$564.01
-$12.23
96.2¢ → 95.5¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $450.44 | $439.36 | -$11.08 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $59.46 | $58.95 | -$0.51 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $39.94 | $39.56 | -$0.38 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $9.92 | $9.78 | -$0.14 | 43% 225-304 (529) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $5.95 | $5.86 | -$0.08 | 38% 253-414 (667) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $5.54 | $5.54 | -$0 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $5 | $4.95 | -$0.05 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
Invested
$450.44
Value
$439.36
PnL
-$11.08
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$59.46
Value
$58.95
PnL
-$0.51
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$39.94
Value
$39.56
PnL
-$0.38
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Invested
$9.92
Value
$9.78
PnL
-$0.14
Record
43%
225-304 (529)
Invested
$5.95
Value
$5.86
PnL
-$0.08
Record
38%
253-414 (667)
Invested
$5.54
Value
$5.54
PnL
-$0
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$0.05
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.