Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 2 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 8°C on November 11?

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 26¢ · $243 held · ends Nov 11

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

Total Value

$242.53

Combined PnL

-$42.65

Smart Money Entry

35¢ → 26¢

-26% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$130.35

Total Shares496

Combined PnL-$43.54

No8 traders

Total Value$112.18

Total Shares148

Combined PnL+$0.9

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 34.2¢	$144.19	$111.85	-$32.34	59% 1019-705 (1724)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 72.1¢	$44.46	$44.99	+$0.53	36% 3004-5342 (8346)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 71.7¢	$29.84	$31.62	+$1.78	53% 5381-4862 (10243)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 40.1¢	$29.7	$18.5	-$11.2	28% 209-544 (753)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$15.15	$13.29	-$1.86	84% 481-91 (572)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 74¢	$6.02	$5.93	-$0.08	38% 253-414 (667)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 73¢	$4.47	$4.47	+$0	36% 262-468 (730)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 67¢	$3.87	$4.39	+$0.52	29% 2516-6167 (8683)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 73¢	$3.77	$3.77	+$0	42% 243-342 (585)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 73¢	$3.72	$3.72	+$0	36% 254-444 (698)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$144.19

Value

$111.85

PnL

-$32.34

Record

59%

1019-705 (1724)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$44.46

Value

$44.99

PnL

+$0.53

Record

36%

3004-5342 (8346)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$29.84

Value

$31.62

PnL

+$1.78

Record

53%

5381-4862 (10243)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.7

Value

$18.5

PnL

-$11.2

Record

28%

209-544 (753)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$15.15

Value

$13.29

PnL

-$1.86

Record

84%

481-91 (572)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.02

Value

$5.93

PnL

-$0.08

Record

38%

253-414 (667)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.47

Value

$4.47

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

262-468 (730)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$3.87

Value

$4.39

PnL

+$0.52

Record

29%

2516-6167 (8683)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.77

Value

$3.77

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

243-342 (585)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.72

Value

$3.72

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

254-444 (698)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.0%

26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$257.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

357.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.