Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 7°C on November 11?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 45¢ · $186 held · ends Nov 11

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$186.44

Combined PnL

$8.44

Smart Money Entry

44.6¢ → 45¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$167.59

Total Shares365

Combined PnL+$7.72

Yes1 trader

Total Value$18.73

Total Shares33

Combined PnL+$0.72

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 44.7¢	$111.58	$105.03	+$9.11	28% 209-544 (753)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 44.3¢	$27.32	$27.12	-$0.2	36% 3004-5342 (8346)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 43.7¢	$19.48	$18.96	-$0.52	53% 5381-4862 (10243)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 55.3¢	$18.01	$18.73	+$0.72	84% 481-91 (572)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$5.81	$5.81	+$0	43% 225-304 (529)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$4.94	$4.94	+$0	36% 262-468 (730)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$3.6	$3.23	-$0.38	59% 1019-705 (1724)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$2.82	$2.52	-$0.29	29% 2516-6167 (8683)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$111.58

Value

$105.03

PnL

+$9.11

Record

28%

209-544 (753)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$27.32

Value

$27.12

PnL

-$0.2

Record

36%

3004-5342 (8346)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$19.48

Value

$18.96

PnL

-$0.52

Record

53%

5381-4862 (10243)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.01

Value

$18.73

PnL

+$0.72

Record

84%

481-91 (572)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$5.81

Value

$5.81

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

225-304 (529)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.94

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

262-468 (730)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$0.38

Record

59%

1019-705 (1724)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.52

PnL

-$0.29

Record

29%

2516-6167 (8683)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.