Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 6°C on November 11?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 85¢ · $164 held · ends Nov 11

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$164.32

Combined PnL

$1.16

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 84.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$131.28

Total Shares154

Combined PnL-$4.2

Yes1 trader

Total Value$33.04

Total Shares236

Combined PnL+$5.36

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 86.4¢	$53.22	$51.46	-$1.76	36% 3004-5342 (8346)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 88.4¢	$36.76	$34.74	-$2.03	53% 5381-4862 (10243)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.7¢	$27.68	$33.04	+$5.36	28% 209-544 (753)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$16.5	$16.3	-$0.2	53% 325-288 (613)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 84¢	$11.09	$11.02	-$0.07	36% 254-444 (698)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 86¢	$7.68	$7.68	-$0	84% 481-91 (572)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 84¢	$5.15	$5.12	-$0.03	36% 262-468 (730)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 88¢	$5.08	$4.96	-$0.12	29% 2516-6167 (8683)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$53.22

Value

$51.46

PnL

-$1.76

Record

36%

3004-5342 (8346)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$36.76

Value

$34.74

PnL

-$2.03

Record

53%

5381-4862 (10243)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.68

Value

$33.04

PnL

+$5.36

Record

28%

209-544 (753)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.5

Value

$16.3

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

325-288 (613)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$11.09

Value

$11.02

PnL

-$0.07

Record

36%

254-444 (698)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$7.68

Value

$7.68

PnL

-$0

Record

84%

481-91 (572)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$5.12

PnL

-$0.03

Record

36%

262-468 (730)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$5.08

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$0.12

Record

29%

2516-6167 (8683)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.