Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 5°C on November 11?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $191 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$190.9
-$1.38
99.2¢ → 98.2¢
-1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $92.46 | $91.53 | -$0.93 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $41.33 | $41.14 | -$0.19 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $15.28 | $15.23 | -$0.05 | 39% 303-465 (768) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $15.16 | $15.05 | -$0.11 | 45% 273-328 (601) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $11.15 | $11.1 | -$0.06 | 41% 299-433 (732) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $6.09 | $6.06 | -$0.03 | 44% 286-362 (648) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $5.73 | $5.71 | -$0.02 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $5.07 | $5.08 | +$0.01 | 39% 624-957 (1581) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$92.46
Value
$91.53
PnL
-$0.93
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
Invested
$41.33
Value
$41.14
PnL
-$0.19
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$15.28
Value
$15.23
PnL
-$0.05
Record
39%
303-465 (768)
Invested
$15.16
Value
$15.05
PnL
-$0.11
Record
45%
273-328 (601)
Invested
$11.15
Value
$11.1
PnL
-$0.06
Record
41%
299-433 (732)
Invested
$6.09
Value
$6.06
PnL
-$0.03
Record
44%
286-362 (648)
Invested
$5.73
Value
$5.71
PnL
-$0.02
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
Invested
$5.07
Value
$5.08
PnL
+$0.01
Record
39%
624-957 (1581)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Lucerys
No — $91.53
cigarettes
No — $41.14
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $15.23
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $15.05
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $11.1
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $6.06
qwen300.fund
No — $5.71
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $5.08