Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 4°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $135 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$135.39
$0.07
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $93.12 | $93.16 | +$0.05 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.31 | $19.32 | +$0.01 | 40% 657-967 (1624) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $10.14 | $10.14 | +$0.01 | 41% 342-497 (839) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $6.99 | $7 | +$0 | 43% 334-446 (780) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.76 | $5.77 | +$0 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$93.12
Value
$93.16
PnL
+$0.05
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$19.31
Value
$19.32
PnL
+$0.01
Record
40%
657-967 (1624)
Invested
$10.14
Value
$10.14
PnL
+$0.01
Record
41%
342-497 (839)
Invested
$6.99
Value
$7
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
334-446 (780)
Invested
$5.76
Value
$5.77
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.