Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $157 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$157.46
$0.17
99.6¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $92.86 | $92.93 | +$0.07 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $41.4 | $41.48 | +$0.08 | 53% 5552-4939 (10491) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $10.31 | $10.32 | +$0.01 | 40% 329-494 (823) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $6.97 | $6.98 | +$0.01 | 41% 324-472 (796) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $5.75 | $5.75 | +$0.01 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$92.86
Value
$92.93
PnL
+$0.07
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$41.4
Value
$41.48
PnL
+$0.08
Record
53%
5552-4939 (10491)
Invested
$10.31
Value
$10.32
PnL
+$0.01
Record
40%
329-494 (823)
Invested
$6.97
Value
$6.98
PnL
+$0.01
Record
41%
324-472 (796)
Invested
$5.75
Value
$5.75
PnL
+$0.01
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.