Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 8°C on November 10?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 14¢ · $284 held · ends Nov 10

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$284.25

Combined PnL

$57.81

Smart Money Entry

41.9¢ → 13.5¢

-68% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$282.15

Total Shares432

Combined PnL+$57.86

No1 trader

Total Value$2.1

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.05

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 41.5¢	$172.03	$226.4	+$54.37	23% 151-506 (657)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$38.05	$38.46	+$0.41	87% 434-63 (497)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 40.8¢	$4.07	$5.79	+$1.72	52% 247-230 (477)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$3.75	$4.16	+$0.41	36% 509-900 (1409)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$2.45	$2.96	+$0.51	33% 187-375 (562)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$2.07	$2.3	+$0.23	31% 196-433 (629)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.1	-$0.05	35% 2886-5323 (8209)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$1.87	$2.07	+$0.2	37% 160-274 (434)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$172.03

Value

$226.4

PnL

+$54.37

Record

23%

151-506 (657)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.05

Value

$38.46

PnL

+$0.41

Record

87%

434-63 (497)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.07

Value

$5.79

PnL

+$1.72

Record

52%

247-230 (477)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.75

Value

$4.16

PnL

+$0.41

Record

36%

509-900 (1409)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.96

PnL

+$0.51

Record

33%

187-375 (562)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.07

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.23

Record

31%

196-433 (629)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.05

Record

35%

2886-5323 (8209)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.87

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$0.2

Record

37%

160-274 (434)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.1%

13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$561.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

661.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.