Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 7°C on November 10?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 77¢ · $208 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$207.96
$0.59
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $191.75 | $163.87 | -$27.88 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 72.9¢ | $89.85 | $94.94 | +$5.09 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 34¢ | $101.91 | $68.93 | -$32.97 | |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 71.4¢ | $21.46 | $22.55 | +$1.09 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $12.85 | $12.31 | -$0.54 | 2% 12-662 (674) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 74.2¢ | $8.78 | $8.81 | +$0.03 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Invested
$191.75
Value
$163.87
PnL
-$27.88
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Both legs:
Invested
$21.46
Value
$22.55
PnL
+$1.09
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Invested
$12.85
Value
$12.31
PnL
-$0.54
Record
2%
12-662 (674)
Invested
$8.78
Value
$8.81
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.