Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 6°C on November 10?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $188 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$188.32
$2.06
93.9¢ → 95.2¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 93.6¢ | $162.32 | $164.21 | +$1.89 | 21% 133-488 (621) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $9.53 | $9.56 | +$0.31 | 52% 223-209 (432) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 36% 493-882 (1375) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $4.86 | $4.79 | -$0.07 | 31% 166-362 (528) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $4.83 | $4.76 | -$0.07 | 35% 2852-5315 (8167) |
Invested
$162.32
Value
$164.21
PnL
+$1.89
Record
21%
133-488 (621)
Invested
$9.53
Value
$9.56
PnL
+$0.31
Record
52%
223-209 (432)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
493-882 (1375)
Invested
$4.86
Value
$4.79
PnL
-$0.07
Record
31%
166-362 (528)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.83
Value
$4.76
PnL
-$0.07
Record
35%
2852-5315 (8167)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.