Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C or higher on November 10?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 1.4¢ · $15 held · ends Nov 10

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$14.98

Combined PnL

$0.75

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$12.32

Total Shares14

Combined PnL-$1.35

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.66

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$2.1

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.17	$4.66	-$0.51	31% 196-433 (629)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$4.5	-$0.5	35% 2886-5323 (8209)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$3.5	$3.16	-$0.34	100% 94-0 (94)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.05	$1.43	+$1.38	52% 247-230 (477)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.1	$0.51	+$0.4	36% 176-307 (483)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$0.13	$0.5	+$0.38	30% 177-414 (591)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.29	$0.22	-$0.07	37% 160-274 (434)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.17

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$0.51

Record

31%

196-433 (629)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

35%

2886-5323 (8209)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.16

PnL

-$0.34

Record

100%

94-0 (94)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$1.38

Record

52%

247-230 (477)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.51

PnL

+$0.4

Record

36%

176-307 (483)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$0.38

Record

30%

177-414 (591)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.07

Record

37%

160-274 (434)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.5%

1.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3957.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

4057.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.