Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on November 10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $364 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$364.31
$17.25
95.3¢ → 98¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $334.36 | $351.22 | +$16.86 | 21% 133-488 (621) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $5.08 | $5.12 | +$0.03 | 34% 153-295 (448) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $4.95 | $4.9 | -$0.04 | 35% 2852-5315 (8167) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $2.5 | $2.54 | +$0.04 | 100% 94-0 (94) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $0.17 | $0.53 | +$0.36 | 52% 223-209 (432) |
Invested
$334.36
Value
$351.22
PnL
+$16.86
Record
21%
133-488 (621)
Invested
$5.08
Value
$5.12
PnL
+$0.03
Record
34%
153-295 (448)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.95
Value
$4.9
PnL
-$0.04
Record
35%
2852-5315 (8167)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.54
PnL
+$0.04
Record
100%
94-0 (94)
Invested
$0.17
Value
$0.53
PnL
+$0.36
Record
52%
223-209 (432)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.