Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 1?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 37¢ · $607 held · ends Nov 1

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$607.36

Combined PnL

$1.62

Smart Money Entry

35.2¢ → 37¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$260.82

Total Shares732

Combined PnL-$6.29

No2 traders

Total Value$82.91

Total Shares108

Combined PnL+$7.91

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100	Noavg 58.8¢	$228.19	$263.63	+$35.44	47% 682-762 (1444)
└ No leg	Noavg 58.8¢	$126.41	$149.48	+$23.07
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.2¢	$101.78	$114.15	+$12.37
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 30.6¢	$121.45	$149.06	+$27.61	59% 1862-1301 (3163)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Yesavg 42.8¢	$109.92	$78.37	-$31.55	55% 439-359 (798)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 58.5¢	$85.08	$56.29	+$9.96	53% 6624-5811 (12435)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.2¢	$35.73	$33.39	-$2.34	50% 1863-1837 (3700)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 79.1¢	$43.11	$26.62	-$2.05	19% 335-1419 (1754)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100

Invested

$228.19

Value

$263.63

PnL

+$35.44

Record

47%

682-762 (1444)

Both legs:

No$126.4158.8¢+$23.07

Yes$101.7827.2¢+$12.37

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$121.45

Value

$149.06

PnL

+$27.61

Record

59%

1862-1301 (3163)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$109.92

Value

$78.37

PnL

-$31.55

Record

55%

439-359 (798)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$85.08

Value

$56.29

PnL

+$9.96

Record

53%

6624-5811 (12435)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.73

Value

$33.39

PnL

-$2.34

Record

50%

1863-1837 (3700)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$43.11

Value

$26.62

PnL

-$2.05

Record

19%

335-1419 (1754)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.