Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $54 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$54.37

Combined PnL

-$172.12

Smart Money Entry

1.8¢ → 0.1¢

-97% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$49.98

Total Shares50

Combined PnL+$0.28

Yes8 traders

Total Value$4.39

Total Shares8,790

Combined PnL-$172.4

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

687h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$49.7	$49.98	+$0.28	77% 9134-2746 (11880)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$111.75	$2.74	-$109.01	50% 1220-1232 (2452)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.03	$0.6	-$2.58	21% 2284-8684 (10968)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$65.42	$0.38	-$16.01	36% 1885-3304 (5189)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$63.3	$0.34	-$32.95	38% 2933-4687 (7620)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$5.8	$0.18	-$5.57	72% 8553-3324 (11877)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$3.73	$0.09	-$3.64	31% 1407-3191 (4598)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$2.2	$0.05	-$2.15	23% 177-599 (776)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.5	$0.01	-$0.49	24% 666-2082 (2748)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$49.7

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$0.28

Record

77%

9134-2746 (11880)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$111.75

Value

$2.74

PnL

-$109.01

Record

50%

1220-1232 (2452)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$2.58

Record

21%

2284-8684 (10968)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.42

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$16.01

Record

36%

1885-3304 (5189)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.3

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$32.95

Record

38%

2933-4687 (7620)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.8

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$5.57

Record

72%

8553-3324 (11877)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.73

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$3.64

Record

31%

1407-3191 (4598)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.15

Record

23%

177-599 (776)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.49

Record

24%

666-2082 (2748)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

687h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.