Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $118 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$117.84
-$33.96
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
685h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
14 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TY Tysha<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.95 | $59.93 | -$0.03 | 72% 8552-3306 (11858) |
HO Hourglass<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $49.7 | $49.93 | +$0.22 | 77% 9130-2738 (11868) |
DE deltasniperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.16 | $7.5 | -$27.99 | 57% 180-135 (315) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $4.62 | $0.34 | -$4.28 | 25% 180-534 (714) |
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $2.04 | $0.15 | -$1.89 | 19% 49-210 (259) |
Invested
$59.95
Value
$59.93
PnL
-$0.03
Record
72%
8552-3306 (11858)
Invested
$49.7
Value
$49.93
PnL
+$0.22
Record
77%
9130-2738 (11868)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$27.99
Record
57%
180-135 (315)
Invested
$4.62
Value
$0.34
PnL
-$4.28
Record
25%
180-534 (714)
Invested
$2.04
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$1.89
Record
19%
49-210 (259)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.