Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.5K
$622.95
54¢ → 100¢
+85% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
248h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU supersmard | Yesavg 16.8¢ | $137.72 | $817.86 | +$680.15 | 39% 45-70 (115) |
 vinii | Yesavg 98¢ | $591.9 | $603.94 | +$12.04 | 74% 2724-977 (3701) |
 CoinTrick<$100 | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $84.92 | $84.96 | +$0.04 | 98% 3223-82 (3305) |
 2B9SCTR | Noavg 85.8¢ | $75.12 | $12.39 | -$62.73 | 18% 3796-17193 (20989) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.6¢ | $14.63 | $8.08 | -$6.54 | 47% 2034-2252 (4286) |
Invested
$137.72
Value
$817.86
PnL
+$680.15
Record
39%
45-70 (115)
viniiInvested
$591.9
Value
$603.94
PnL
+$12.04
Record
74%
2724-977 (3701)
CoinTrick<$100Invested
$84.92
Value
$84.96
PnL
+$0.04
Record
98%
3223-82 (3305)
2B9SCTRInvested
$75.12
Value
$12.39
PnL
-$62.73
Record
18%
3796-17193 (20989)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$14.63
Value
$8.08
PnL
-$6.54
Record
47%
2034-2252 (4286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.