Will CSD Xelajú MC win on 2026-10-29?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 80¢ · $187 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$186.65
$12.68
73.3¢ → 80¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 73.7¢ | $152.47 | $165.6 | +$13.13 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $11.85 | $11.85 | -$0.4 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $4 | +$0.85 | 54% 6137-5210 (11347) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 69.4¢ | $2.43 | $2.8 | +$0.3 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $3.6 | $2.4 | -$1.2 | 59% 30236-20937 (51173) |
Invested
$152.47
Value
$165.6
PnL
+$13.13
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
Invested
$11.85
Value
$11.85
PnL
-$0.4
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$4
PnL
+$0.85
Record
54%
6137-5210 (11347)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.43
Value
$2.8
PnL
+$0.3
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$1.2
Record
59%
30236-20937 (51173)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.