Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (83%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
PAOK Thessaloniki vs. Asteras Tripolis: O/U 3.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 18¢ · $734 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 57%
$734.32
-$77.74
33.2¢ → 17.5¢
-47% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 83%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 49.4¢ | $189.65 | $308.82 | +$119.17 | 50% 19465-19831 (39296) |
LA LaarsYCTR | Overavg 27.8¢ | $345.88 | $242.58 | -$103.3 | 51% 3435-3356 (6791) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $62 | $80.5 | +$18.5 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $76.5 | $29.25 | -$47.25 | 58% 10691-7671 (18362) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 49.9¢ | $56.27 | $28.64 | -$27.63 | 50% 11182-10999 (22181) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 52.4¢ | $63.74 | $23.74 | -$40 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $18.02 | $20.79 | +$2.77 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
Invested
$189.65
Value
$308.82
PnL
+$119.17
Record
50%
19465-19831 (39296)
Invested
$345.88
Value
$242.58
PnL
-$103.3
Record
51%
3435-3356 (6791)
RN1<$100Invested
$62
Value
$80.5
PnL
+$18.5
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$76.5
Value
$29.25
PnL
-$47.25
Record
58%
10691-7671 (18362)
Invested
$56.27
Value
$28.64
PnL
-$27.63
Record
50%
11182-10999 (22181)
Invested
$63.74
Value
$23.74
PnL
-$40
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Invested
$18.02
Value
$20.79
PnL
+$2.77
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.