PAOK Thessaloniki vs. Asteras Tripolis: O/U 2.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 68¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1

Over68¢Under32¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$304.78

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 67.5¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over68%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,721

Combined PnL+$512.48

Under5 traders

Total Value$964.06

Total Shares3,372

Combined PnL-$207.71

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 57.3¢	$978.51	$1.3K	+$322.11	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
LA LaarsY	Overavg 65¢	$650	$780	+$130	51% 3435-3356 (6791)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 57¢	$653.17	$719.79	+$66.62	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57¢	$408.46	$558.95	+$150.49
└ Under leg	Underavg 33.5¢	$244.71	$160.85	-$83.86
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 32.8¢	$259.94	$372.64	+$112.7	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
us391CTR	Underavg 43¢	$711.94	$364.25	-$347.69	51% 1713-1675 (3388)
LI Lilybaeum	Overavg 57¢	$163.51	$220.15	+$56.64	61% 13796-8679 (22475)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 18.3¢	$174.55	$205.97	+$31.42	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 82.9¢	$192.77	$191.95	-$0.82	50% 11182-10999 (22181)
└ Over leg	Overavg 82.9¢	$141.3	$132.99	-$8.31
└ Under leg	Underavg 19.2¢	$51.47	$58.96	+$7.49
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 57¢	$14.8	$18.52	+$3.72	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$19.94	$17.91	-$2.03	58% 5897-4320 (10217)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$5.4	$3.3	-$2.1	50% 33888-33462 (67350)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$978.51

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$322.11

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

LaarsY

Over

Invested

$650

Value

$780

PnL

+$130

Record

51%

3435-3356 (6791)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$653.17

Value

$719.79

PnL

+$66.62

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Both legs:

Over$408.4657¢+$150.49

Under$244.7133.5¢-$83.86

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$259.94

Value

$372.64

PnL

+$112.7

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

us391CTR

Under

Invested

$711.94

Value

$364.25

PnL

-$347.69

Record

51%

1713-1675 (3388)

Lilybaeum

Over

Invested

$163.51

Value

$220.15

PnL

+$56.64

Record

61%

13796-8679 (22475)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$174.55

Value

$205.97

PnL

+$31.42

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$192.77

Value

$191.95

PnL

-$0.82

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

Both legs:

Over$141.382.9¢-$8.31

Under$51.4719.2¢+$7.49

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$14.8

Value

$18.52

PnL

+$3.72

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

berlinskiesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.94

Value

$17.91

PnL

-$2.03

Record

58%

5897-4320 (10217)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.4

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$2.1

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.