Will Asteras Tripolis win on 2026-11-01?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 79¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 90%
1 arb excluded
$6.8K
$693.52
85.3¢ → 79¢
-7% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 83.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.8K | +$375.42 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
 RN1 | Noavg 89.7¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$133.13 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 80.7¢ | $936.12 | $1.1K | +$187.92 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 85.4¢ | $605.46 | $714.03 | +$108.57 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 85.4¢ | $450.99 | $420.82 | -$30.17 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 10.7¢ | $154.47 | $293.21 | +$138.74 | |
 poshposh | Noavg 86.1¢ | $132.78 | $145.98 | +$13.2 | 58% 10691-7671 (18362) |
FO foooool | Noavg 88.4¢ | $125.21 | $113.26 | -$11.95 | 50% 11182-10999 (22181) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $47.48 | $49.37 | -$0.84 | 53% 16124-14290 (30414) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $41.4 | $43.43 | -$0.23 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 90.7¢ | $16.79 | $13.01 | -$3.78 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 79.5¢ | $3.98 | $4.84 | +$0.87 | 54% 6435-5416 (11851) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.9¢ | $1.09 | $0.87 | -$0.22 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
Invested
$2,414.82
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$375.42
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
RN1Invested
$1,659.06
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$133.13
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$936.12
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$187.92
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Invested
$605.46
Value
$714.03
PnL
+$108.57
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Both legs:
poshposhInvested
$132.78
Value
$145.98
PnL
+$13.2
Record
58%
10691-7671 (18362)
Invested
$125.21
Value
$113.26
PnL
-$11.95
Record
50%
11182-10999 (22181)
Invested
$47.48
Value
$49.37
PnL
-$0.84
Record
53%
16124-14290 (30414)
Invested
$41.4
Value
$43.43
PnL
-$0.23
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$16.79
Value
$13.01
PnL
-$3.78
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
Invested
$3.98
Value
$4.84
PnL
+$0.87
Record
54%
6435-5416 (11851)
Invested
$1.09
Value
$0.87
PnL
-$0.22
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.