Panathinaikos Athens vs. AEK Athens: O/U 2.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 51¢ · $240 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 100%
$239.7
$6.68
49.9¢ → 51¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $98 | $86.19 | +$4 | 54% 4939-4170 (9109) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 50.7¢ | $127.54 | $76.5 | +$1.52 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $47.43 | $47.43 | +$0 | 59% 46853-33124 (79977) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $28.42 | $29.58 | +$1.16 | 48% 8915-9527 (18442) |
Invested
$98
Value
$86.19
PnL
+$4
Record
54%
4939-4170 (9109)
VeryLucky888Invested
$127.54
Value
$76.5
PnL
+$1.52
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
Invested
$47.43
Value
$47.43
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
46853-33124 (79977)
Invested
$28.42
Value
$29.58
PnL
+$1.16
Record
48%
8915-9527 (18442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.