Panathinaikos Athens vs. AEK Athens: O/U 1.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 77¢ · $93 held · ended Nov 1

Over77¢Under23¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$92.81

Combined PnL

$1.72

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over77%

Under23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$50.6

Total Shares66

Combined PnL-$0

Under2 traders

Total Value$42.22

Total Shares184

Combined PnL+$1.72

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 77¢	$77	$48.29	-$0	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$40.02	$40.02	+$0	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 77¢	$2.31	$2.31	-$0	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$0.48	$2.2	+$1.72	50% 25689-25525 (51214)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$77

Value

$48.29

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.02

Value

$40.02

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.48

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$1.72

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.