Will Panathinaikos Athens win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 74¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 44%
$1.1K
$72.82
60.5¢ → 73.5¢
+21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 67.3¢ | $551.92 | $534.51 | -$17.41 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 46.3¢ | $176.63 | $280.17 | +$103.55 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $81.4 | $78.99 | -$3.06 | 53% 16124-14290 (30414) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 72¢ | $72 | $73.5 | +$1.5 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $49.98 | $47.3 | -$2.68 | 50% 11182-10999 (22181) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $36.96 | $34.32 | -$0.33 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $30.93 | $9.88 | -$9.66 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 62.3¢ | $5.61 | $6.62 | +$1.01 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $1.83 | $1.73 | -$0.1 | 50% 24946-24626 (49572) |
Invested
$551.92
Value
$534.51
PnL
-$17.41
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
Invested
$176.63
Value
$280.17
PnL
+$103.55
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$81.4
Value
$78.99
PnL
-$3.06
Record
53%
16124-14290 (30414)
RN1<$100Invested
$72
Value
$73.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$49.98
Value
$47.3
PnL
-$2.68
Record
50%
11182-10999 (22181)
Invested
$36.96
Value
$34.32
PnL
-$0.33
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$30.93
Value
$9.88
PnL
-$9.66
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.61
Value
$6.62
PnL
+$1.01
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
Invested
$1.83
Value
$1.73
PnL
-$0.1
Record
50%
24946-24626 (49572)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.