Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (97%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Panaitolikos Agrinio vs. OFI Crete: O/U 2.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 3.5¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
$3.6K
-$934.57
44.9¢ → 3.5¢
-92% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 97%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA rabbitfoot1CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $2.8K | $2.5K | -$285.62 | 53% 1155-1007 (2162) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 94.7¢ | $749.15 | $763.31 | +$14.16 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 52¢ | $279.79 | $213.29 | +$17.55 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 34.6¢ | $755.39 | $76.51 | -$678.88 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $15.09 | $17.42 | +$2.33 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Overavg 21.4¢ | $6.84 | $2.72 | -$4.12 | 61% 13793-8671 (22464) |
Invested
$2,809.25
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$285.62
Record
53%
1155-1007 (2162)
Invested
$749.15
Value
$763.31
PnL
+$14.16
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
VeryLucky888Invested
$279.79
Value
$213.29
PnL
+$17.55
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
Invested
$755.39
Value
$76.51
PnL
-$678.88
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
RN1<$100Invested
$15.09
Value
$17.42
PnL
+$2.33
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Invested
$6.84
Value
$2.72
PnL
-$4.12
Record
61%
13793-8671 (22464)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.