Will OFI Crete win on 2026-11-01?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 73¢ · $169 held · ended Nov 1

Yes27¢No73¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$169.22

Combined PnL

-$3.49

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 73¢

+21% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$136.4

Total Shares213

Combined PnL-$4.62

Yes3 traders

Total Value$32.83

Total Shares83

Combined PnL+$1.13

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 60¢	$79.19	$87.77	-$3.96	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 61.8¢	$47.9	$46.5	-$1.4	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$25.08	$26.4	+$1.32	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$4.48	$4.72	+$0.18	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 40.4¢	$1.38	$2.12	+$0.74	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$2.08	$1.72	-$0.36	53% 5642-5057 (10699)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$79.19

Value

$87.77

PnL

-$3.96

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$47.9

Value

$46.5

PnL

-$1.4

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.08

Value

$26.4

PnL

+$1.32

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.48

Value

$4.72

PnL

+$0.18

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$1.38

Value

$2.12

PnL

+$0.74

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.08

Value

$1.72

PnL

-$0.36

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.