Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

APO Levadiakos FC vs. Aris Thessaloniki: O/U 2.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 47¢ · $822 held · ended Nov 1

Over54¢Under46¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

Total Value

$821.99

Combined PnL

$45.54

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 46.5¢

-20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$738.79

Total Shares1,624

Combined PnL+$45.54

Over1 trader

Total Value$83.2

Total Shares208

Combined PnL+$0

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 58.8¢	$618.51	$664.69	+$46.18	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 40¢	$83.2	$83.2	+$0	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$40.51	$41.61	+$1.1	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 61¢	$18.3	$18	-$0.3	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 62¢	$12.4	$12	-$0.4	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 59.7¢	$3.52	$2.48	-$1.05	53% 5640-5054 (10694)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$618.51

Value

$664.69

PnL

+$46.18

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$83.2

Value

$83.2

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.51

Value

$41.61

PnL

+$1.1

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.3

Value

$18

PnL

-$0.3

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.4

Value

$12

PnL

-$0.4

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.52

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$1.05

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.