Will APO Levadiakos FC win on 2026-11-01?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 76¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$2.2K
$10.92
73.3¢ → 75.5¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 73¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$0 | 47% 2571-2857 (5428) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 74¢ | $510.49 | $503.34 | +$10.09 | 53% 16110-14274 (30384) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $61.99 | $63.68 | +$1.69 | 62% 1191-722 (1913) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $41.44 | $40.88 | -$0.56 | 57% 29212-21600 (50812) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $40.17 | $40.17 | +$0 | 58% 10631-7605 (18236) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $22.2 | $21.9 | -$0.3 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
Invested
$1,550.84
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2571-2857 (5428)
Invested
$510.49
Value
$503.34
PnL
+$10.09
Record
53%
16110-14274 (30384)
Invested
$61.99
Value
$63.68
PnL
+$1.69
Record
62%
1191-722 (1913)
Invested
$41.44
Value
$40.88
PnL
-$0.56
Record
57%
29212-21600 (50812)
poshposh<$100Invested
$40.17
Value
$40.17
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
10631-7605 (18236)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$22.2
Value
$21.9
PnL
-$0.3
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.