Will APO Levadiakos FC vs. Aris Thessaloniki end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 75¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.8K
-$47.51
70¢ → 74.5¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391 | Noavg 69¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$0 | 51% 1712-1675 (3387) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 71.8¢ | $853.99 | $820.5 | -$33.49 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $396.44 | $383.03 | -$13.41 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $42.7 | $42.09 | -$0.61 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $37.51 | $37.51 | +$0 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
us391Invested
$1,495.96
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
1712-1675 (3387)
Invested
$853.99
Value
$820.5
PnL
-$33.49
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$396.44
Value
$383.03
PnL
-$13.41
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$42.7
Value
$42.09
PnL
-$0.61
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$37.51
Value
$37.51
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.