Will Aris Thessaloniki win on 2026-11-01?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 84¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Yes17¢No83¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$96.85

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 83.5¢

+52% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,052

Combined PnL+$137.11

Yes4 traders

Total Value$229.64

Total Shares603

Combined PnL-$40.26

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 54.9¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$134.57	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 45¢	$210.92	$180.45	-$30.47	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.2¢	$52.7	$44.89	-$7.81	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 53¢	$12.19	$13.57	+$1.5	62% 1191-725 (1916)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 56¢	$2.24	$3.28	+$1.04	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$1.78	$2.55	+$0.77	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 45.5¢	$9.1	$1.75	-$2.75	58% 42698-31074 (73772)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,110.68

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$134.57

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$210.92

Value

$180.45

PnL

-$30.47

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.7

Value

$44.89

PnL

-$7.81

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$12.19

Value

$13.57

PnL

+$1.5

Record

62%

1191-725 (1916)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$2.24

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$1.04

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.78

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.77

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.1

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$2.75

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.